Lethal incompetence (Jeffrey Bordin)

 Lethal incompetence (Jeffrey Bordin)
torpedo

p.590
Bordin
during the late 1930s, naval officers discovered serious quality problems in torpedo manufacturing,
His doctoral dissertation at Claremont graduate school ha explored “how elite governmental decision makers come to ignore or refute valid information during their deliberations.”  The paper began by recounting how, during the late 1930s, naval officers discovered serious quality problems in torpedo manufacturing, yet the officers “acquiesced to both political and organizational pressures to ignore” the defects.  THen, in 1942, at the Battle of midway, nearly a hundred American airmen flew torpedo-armed planes against a vastly superior Japanese force.  “Despite the Holocaust they were flying into”, Bordin recounted, “every aircrew pressed their attack ── many while literally engulfed in flames.”  Yet their bravery came to naught because “not a single torpedo detonated against a Japanese warship.”  This failure “enabled the Japanese to launch a devastating counter strike that culminated in the loss of the USS Yorktown and 141 American lives.”  The title of Bordin's work signaled his perspective on these and similar cases:  “Lethal incompetence:  studies in political and military decision-making.”  Early in his career, Bordin worried that he had been too hard on commanders he chronicled.  Later, he decided, “I wasn't hard enough.”

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1oBkzu73s1esw9jMfj-lrVJAc-L_E11qO/view?usp=sharing

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1oBkzu73s1esw9jMfj-lrVJAc-L_E11qO/view?usp=sharing



https://isme.tamu.edu/JSCOPE02/Bordin02.html

ON THE PSYCHOLOGY OF MORAL COGNITION AND RESISTANCE TO ERRONEOUS AUTHORITATIVE AND GROUPTHINK DEMANDS DURING A MILITARY  INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS GAMING EXERCISE
by Jeffrey Bordin, Ph.D.
Captain, U.S. Army Reserve

Paper to be presented at the Joint Services Conference On Professional Ethics, January 24-25, 2002, Springfield, VA.

In the late 1930 s naval officers responsible for monitoring the construction of the U.S. Navy s torpedoes discovered serious and widespread manufacturing defects.  However, they acquiesced to political and organizational pressures to ignore the discrepancies.  Unwilling to jeopardize their military careers, they took no corrective action (cf. Morison, 1963, pp. 12-13).

On the morning of June 4th, 1942, 51 U.S. warplanes armed with torpedoes took off in a desperate attack on a vastly superior Japanese military force that was closing on Midway Island.  The U.S. airmen were well aware of the stakes and the almost insurmountable odds against their own survival.  Despite the holocaust they were flying into, every aircrew pressed their attack many while literally engulfed in flames.  Virtually all the aircraft were destroyed, and 98 airmen were killed.  It is likely that at least two, and possibly three or more U.S. pilots attempted to crash their fatally stricken aircraft into a Japanese warship during their final moments; another bomber pilot, Captain Richard Fleming, succeeded in doing so later in the battle.  Despite the incredible courage, the resolute determination and the selfless sacrifice of these attacks, not a single torpedo detonated against a Japanese warship.  The torpedoes were defective (cf. Fuchida & Okumiya, 1982; Levite, 1987; Lord, 1967; Mizrahi, 1967; Smith, 1991; Stafford, 1962).

https://isme.tamu.edu/JSCOPE02/Bordin02.html


[[ this is a different torpedo problem ?? ]]
THE GREAT TORPEDO SCANDAL 1941-43
https://archive.navalsubleague.org/1996/the-great-torpedo-scaodal-1941-43

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_14_torpedo

Torpedoes were so expensive that the Navy was unwilling to perform tests that would destroy a torpedo. [[??]]



A CRISIS OF TRUST AND
CULTURAL INCOMPATIBILITY:
A Red Team Study of Mutual Perceptions of Afghan
National Security Force Personnel and U.S. Soldiers in
Understanding and Mitigating the Phenomena of
ANSF-Committed Fratricide-Murders
May 12, 2011
A CRISIS OF TRUST AND
CULTURAL INCOMPATIBILITY:
A Red Team Study of Mutual Perceptions of Afghan
National Security Force Personnel and U.S. Soldiers in
Understanding and Mitigating the Phenomena of
ANSF-Committed Fratricide-Murders
May 12, 2011
Jeffrey Bordin, Ph.D.
N2KL Red Team Political and Military Behavioral Scientist
jeffrey. bordin@afghan.swaanny.mil
https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB370/docs/Document%2011.pdf



book
Lethal Incompetence: Studies in Political and Military Decision-Making
by Jeffrey T. Bordin (Author)
The diplomatic failures leading up to the invasion of Iraq and its insurgency aftermath have a long history. An incredible number of wars attest to the remarkable stubbornness of leaders presented with intelligence warnings that they are headed for trouble. There is a strong regularity of senior officials being taken by surprise simply out of sheer obstinacy in sticking to a false, preconceived notion. It has been estimated that decisions of elite governmental decision-makers to involve themselves in a war have involved major errors of fact, perhaps in more than 50% of all cases. This study analyzes the causes of such incompetent political decision-making. Specifically, it analyses impediments to the effective interpretation of intelligence information and assesses the propensity of certain leaders to selectively process intelligence in order to initiate premature and unwarranted military intervention. Psychological, social and organizational factors that contribute to decision-makers' premature aggression, acquiescence to erroneous normative demands, and obstinacy in maintaining false, preconceived notions were empirically analyzed. Psycho-political profiles developed included "The Cheney Syndrome." The first section of this book consists of a review of examples of governmental decision-making failures. The second section consists of an experimental analysis of these factors. 313 U.S. military officers completed a gaming exercise involving a terrorist crisis that also included a battery of psychological, social and political ideology measures. Officers' propensities to institute premature punitive measures based on minimal, ambiguous information as well as to acquiesce to erroneous authoritative demands were assessed. While documenting a solid background of examples of pathologies in decision-making and intelligence analysis, this study moved beyond the anecdotal nature of the case study approach. The presentation of the given terrorist scenario to each study participant allowed the same crisis situation to be repeated hundreds of times while varying the political, social, and psychological factors affecting decision-making and intelligence analysis. This allowed for a high degree of explanation and prediction of decision-making behaviors. The results of this study offer strong evidence of the value of utilizing a contextual approach to political and military psychology research.

Michael J. Keeney
2.0 out of 5 stars Too political, detracts from objectivity
Reviewed in the United States on May 12, 2012
Verified Purchase
I have reached p. 32, and out of all the many examples of incompetence, Bordin did not seem able to find a single one describing behavior involving a democrat president. Conversely, gaffes occurring during Republican administrations are attributed directly to President Nixon or President Regan. When Bordin reluctantly admits the potential that something bad may have occurred in a democrat administration, he names underlings, such as being critical of decisions attributed to Secretary of Defense McNamara rather than attributing the incompetence directly to President Johnson as is does in the case of Republican presidents. I am finding that this is making me skeptical of the scientific objectivity of the literature review and empirical work that will follow. Further, although the copyright is fairly recent (2006), much of the literature cited (such as Janis' Groupthink construct) has not sttod the test of further empirical investigation. I do not recommend this book, or at least suggest readers maintain a healthy skepticism.

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Why Habit Formation is Hard (ribbonfarm.com)

 the following is a copy & paste from 

Why Habit Formation is Hard
April 1, 2013 By Tempo 

https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2013/04/01/why-habit-formation-is-hard/

you should visit the web page 
https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2013/04/01/why-habit-formation-is-hard/


The Structure of Habits

Let’s start with a definition.

A habit is a stable, repeatable pattern of behavior that involves minimal meta-cognition, and achieves predictable results within a particular local range of conditions, defined as a combination of a cognitive context and a physical context.

In other words, it is a predictable behavior you can execute without thinking too much about it, so long as you are in a particular state of mind and in the right place/time for it.

We can borrow a term from mathematics and call the “local range of conditions” the region of attraction. Think of it like the gravitational region around a planet. Within a certain distance, and a certain range of velocities, small asteroids that enter the region will be captured into orbit. 

So every instance of trying to execute a “gym workout” is like an asteroid flying by a planet. Getting captured into orbit is like successfully finishing a workout.

A large region of attraction makes for a stable and robust habit. A small one makes for a fragile, easily derailed habit.

From the definition, we can infer that every habit is actually two intertwined habits. There is a habit of thought and a coupled habit of action. 

    A habit of thought is a set of coupled patterns of thought and a practiced ability to switch among them appropriately and effectively.
    A habit of action is a learned pattern of physical behavior involving sensory processing and physical movements.

Both are context-dependent. The former is dependent on your immediate state of mind, the latter is dependent on your immediate environment.

Some habits, like switching between brain-dump mode and edit-mode in writing, are almost entirely habits of mind. As you mature at the writing game, you become better at switching between the two modes at the right time. Inexperienced writers often get writers’ block primarily because they stay too long in one or the other mode and get frustrated. The action component is trivial (the physical behavior in both modes is typing or working with pen and paper; switching at most involves taking a short break or changing locations).

Other habits, like your bedtime ritual (end-of-day chores, brushing your teeth, changing into pajamas, and whatever else you do), are almost entirely habits of action.

Most complex habits are a mix of non-trivial thought and action components. Exercising is an example of a complex habit. For some of us, being outside of a narrow range of moods makes it impossible to work out, and expanding that range is hard work. For others, the mood is never a problem, but even a slight change in physical conditions derails the intention to work out.

Learning and Habits

Habits that have been successfully acquired involve very low meta-cognition, but getting there involves plenty of meta-cognition: learning the habit.

Almost all this learning has to do with increasing the size of the region of attraction where the habit “works.”  We can distinguish two phases of learning a habit.

    Doing it right for the very first time (10%)
    Expanding the region of attraction till it is large enough to be worthwhile (90%)

 

http://www.tempobook.com/2011/05/04/the-one-way-of-the-beginner/

As we’ve discussed before, beginners typically learn (and get anxiously attached to) one way of doing something. For example, in a video game, you might learn exactly one fragile way to pass a level. In a level of a vertical shooter I used to play a few years ago, that “one way” involved starting in the bottom right and shooting the aliens in a very specific sequence.

“beginners want only one way to do something.”

http://www.tempobook.com/2011/05/04/the-one-way-of-the-beginner/

This leads to an interesting effect when a beginner who has learned only one by-the-book way to do something encounters somebody with enough mastery to do the same thing in a million improvised ways. If no status or expertise indicators are available, in such situations, the beginner will often assume that the master is incompetent because s/he is doing it “wrong.” I suppose this is one specific way the Duning-Kruger effect plays out.

 

[[ Dunning-Kruger effect (people with limited skillset usually think they are better than they actual are in their ability; they are over confidence, and they have a false sense of being over confidence in their self-assessment; people with low ability in a specific area to give overly positive assessments of this ability.[2][3][4], i.e. as a systematic tendency to engage in erroneous forms of thinking and judging.[5][6][7]; this might be more valid toward the male gender of the species (gender bias) (the en.wikipedia.org entry did not say this); ... ) (For this reason, it is difficult for the incompetent to recognize their incompetence.[12][5]; two red flags: they lack a skill and they are unaware of this deficiency.[9]) (low performers overestimate themselves). ]]

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shuhari

This “one way” is obviously fragile, since if initial conditions are not exactly right, your behavior will be derailed. This is why you need the second phase: gradually expanding the region of attraction by introducing small contextual variations — both mental and physical.

In terms of the idea of a region of attraction, the one way of a beginner can be thought of as a single point. Any deviation from ideal conditions will derail the habit.

So if the behavior is “mounting a bicycle” and you can initially do it only when you are in a confident and energetic mood and are starting on a hill, headed down, you might expand the domain of your “bicycle mounting” habit by learning how to do it in a variety of moods and energy levels, and in all sorts of conditions.

Eventually, you hit diminishing returns. We all have different stopping points when we give up refining a habit. In mounting a bike, most of us give up once we can start on any reasonable grade, and learn the standing-astride and running mounts. Circus performers might try and learn how to mount easily from both sides, from behind, facing backwards and on extreme grades you’d never encounter on normal bike-paths.

This tells you that a habit is also an algorithm that has been gradually evolved to handle a sufficiently large range of conditions to make it worthwhile. Your investment in learning is wasted if the region of attraction does not grow sufficiently large.

The shape of the learning curve for a given habit (either new, or ported) in a given context depends on the complexity of cognitive and physical environments.

As a first-order approximation, you could say that things you learn about the physical context require very few repetitions. Once you’ve done laundry in a new apartment once, you’re pretty much done learning. The problem is that there are a lot of such things in a given physical environment. You might have to learn a hundred little things, each involving 1-3 repetitions.

Learning mental things usually involves more repetitions but fewer discrete elements. For example, when you go from high school to college, your study habits have to change because you are at a different level of the education game. It might take studying for several dozen quizzes or midterms before you settle into your new study habits.

Jokes aside, each kind of learning can go on indefinitely. People generally stop or declare a temporary detente once they start to derive a net positive “return on investment” for their learning efforts around one habit (or group of habits), and direct their limited learning energies to another front with higher returns.

As a result, our behavioral personality is always a set of habit-fronts at various stages of evolution. Some are stable, some are being learned (and bleeding red), some are being ported, some are atrophying. Some are in a state of diminishing returns.

Habits and Personality

Depending on whether they are primarily internally focused or externally focused, people tend to be better at either the mental or physical components of habit formation. It seems to be a zero-sum trade-off. I’ve never met anyone who was equally good at both. It’s like being right or left-handed.

I am pretty lousy at forming physical habits. I am much better at forming habits of thought. There are different sources of difficulty for the two kinds.

Habits of action are difficult to acquire because they require processing or memorizing a large amount of arbitrary information. To learn to get from point home to gym without too much thinking or a GPS, you need to learn various routes, turnings, traffic conditions, construction conditions, hacks, shortcuts, and so forth. Much of this habituation to the arbitrariness of a context is not portable. It is also not efficiently compressible, so it is energy intensive.

Responding to traffic signs is a kind of physical learning that ports within a country. But learning the quirks of a specific city (for example, here in Seattle, one rule of thumb is “avoid Mercer Avenue during rush hour”) is not very helpful when you move to a different city with different quirks.

Habits of thought are difficult to acquire for a different reason, though they might seem superficially easier to acquire. Your mind goes with you from context to context, so anything you learn about yourself, like whether you are more of a lark or owl goes with you everywhere. But learning about your mind is also fundamentally harder than learning something like “Maple Street is one-way east to west.” Since identity hangups, biases, demons and shadows all reside inside your head, every single useful true thing you learn about yourself comes at a 10x cost.

So you may not pay “porting costs” each time you move to a different physical or cognitive context (new city, new level of the mental game via a promotion or role change), but you pay more upfront, and the learning curve is much longer.

For those who like their finance metaphors, habits of action are op-ex heavy, habits of thought are cap-ex heavy.

Habits versus Addictions and Aversions

Healthy habits are the ones which are delivering a return and have an appropriate region of attraction. When the region of attraction for a habit expands where it is potentially harmful, you have an addiction. Addictions can form once a habit is generating a predictable “profit” after the learning curve has been traversed.

Once you get used to the “profit” and come to expect it, the motivational structure for the learned behavior can change. You no longer exercise because you recognize the benefits. You exercise because you are addicted to (say) the “Runner’s High.” You might turn into an extreme, obsessive runner and ruin your knees.

Habits can also turn into aversions. This happens in two ways. Either the habit becomes a displacement behavior for another activity (for example, cleaning the apartment to avoid working on your thesis), or the habit itself can develop a convoluted region of attraction to avoid certain painful regimes.

So you might develop a habit of using humor to steer conversations away from uncomfortable topics and develop a (justified) reputation as a great conversationalist.

Many behaviors are ambiguous, in that they are healthy habits, addictions or aversions depending on the context. These are the behaviors around which developing a strong sense of narrative rationality is very important.

Porting a Habit

Porting a habit to a new context is hard because the learned elements that don’t port well cause a shrinkage of the size of the region of attraction. Sometimes the shrinkage is so dramatic that an expert behavior becomes completely useless in a new context, or at least “unprofitable,” to use our finance metaphor.

One way to think about porting a habit is to think of it as recompiling a program on a new computer. Depending on how big the context difference, you may need to do anything from tweak a few settings to rewrite the entire program to compile on the new computer.

For the gym example I started with, the basic context-dependent algorithm is the same in both cases:

    Change into gym clothes
    Go to gym
    Workout
    Shower and change
    Move on to next activity

But this is deceptively simple. There is a whole lot of context dependency that is not captured here. For my Vegas to Seattle example, here are some key ones:

    In Vegas, the weather is always suitable for any mode of transport, in Seattle, the weather varies in non-trivial ways that affect whether you can walk or ride a bike or drive.
    In Seattle, driving the 1.5 miles is much harder because it is urban driving with a lot of pedestrians, bicycles, traffic lights and one-way streets. In Vegas, I had an easy suburban route with just one left turn and no pedestrians. I have to be 3x as alert to drive to the gym in Seattle. So I am sufficiently alert less often.
    In Vegas, parking was not a concern. It was always available and always free. In Seattle, depending on the time of day, day of week and season of the year, my gym has different rules about parking and how much I pay. I have to get the parking ticket validated at the front desk. So the algorithm has a whole branch of logic having to do with parking decisions that didn’t exist in Vegas.
    In Vegas, transitioning to/from the next activity was easy. I could make it up as I went along. In Seattle, if I plan to work at a coffee shop after the workout, I have to plan differently depending on whether I drove, walked or took the bus.

This is just a small subset of the differences. If I wrote out the pseudocode for “go to gym” for Vegas and Seattle, I suspect, the latter program would be at least 5x as long. Much of the added complexity is because my living situation in Seattle has a good deal more physical complexity in the environment, since I live close to the city center rather than in a suburb.

As an aside, the closer you live to the center of a city, the more computationally demanding all habits become. This is one reason where you live is such a useful variable for personality typing.

Acquisition versus Porting

You can quantify the difficulty of acquiring or porting a habit loosely by assessing the physical and cognitive context complexity. It is easier to assess the latter (porting) because you only have to assess a pair of differences between before/after contexts. As mathematicians know, the “differential” or “variational” version of any kind of problem is generally easier than the absolute version. There is even a well-developed theory of how to do it well (it’s called perturbation analysis).

Another reason porting is easier than acquiring a new behavior from scratch is that a lot of learning is illegible and unconscious. You have to build up a robust algorithm in your head that you don’t fully understand. Say a habit algorithm has a conscious component C that you could write down, and an unconscious component U that you are not really aware of. So moving the habit from one context to the other is about moving C to C1 and U to U1.

In my experience, the unconscious component generally ports far more easily. But when it breaks, it is also much harder to debug.

It’s like the algorithm for every habit has two components: a piece for which you have the source code, and a piece for which you only have the compiled binary code. The former nearly always needs some modification when you change contexts, while the latter usually ports without any effort. But when the latter fails to port, you’re in serious trouble.

Complex ports can be understood as ports where C1 and U1 are both functions of both C and U rather than C1 being a function of C and U1 of U.  In other words, you may have to consciously process previously unconscious components of behavior, and vice-versa. This takes a higher level of self-awareness.

In a way, context-switching and simply expanding the region of attraction in one context don’t differ much. So ports are simply disconnected expansions of the region of attraction. You are adding a planet, so you can capture asteroids around two centers.

Meta-Habits

A meta-habit is a habit you use to port or acquire other habits. For example, dive off the deep end, is a specific learning strategy (immersion) that can jumpstart any new habit. If you know how to handle the extreme disorientation, chaos and anxiety it induces, and if you know when it is safe to do so.

In the prototypical example of swimming, diving off the deep end is actually a terrible way to learn unless there is a teacher around. You will almost certainly drown if you aren’t close enough to the edge to thrash your way to something secure within a few seconds.

I don’t know if there has been much research into meta-habits, but here are some I am aware of, some of which I even practice.

    Diving off the deep end
    Confidence building with small wins
    Not perturbing behaviors along too many dimensions at once (however, the naive experimentation idea that you should tweak only one variable at a time is misguided and inefficient when there are many dimensions).
    Gradualism (push yourself only a tiny bit extra with each attempt to expand the region of attraction)
    “Exercise to failure” (keep pushing yourself in one direction until you cannot handle a particular case, a matter of finding the boundary of the region of attraction)
    Never make a decision when depressed, especially a quit/persist decision
    Fail fast — not in the product development sense, but in the sense of quickly putting a scratch or dent on your pristine learning effort (remember the lowering of anxiety you felt when you first put a scratch on a new car?)
    Shut up when learning a physical habit (verbalization slows down acquisition of tacit knowledge — if you have a teacher who talks too much during teaching of a physical behavior like swinging a tennis racket, find a new teacher: you need periods of silent repetition between being given instructions and suggestions)

Curiously, I am much better at incorporating some of these meta-habits into my teaching than into my learning.

Variety Reduction as Anti-habit Formation

You can come at habit formation from the other direction. Instead of trying to learn a habit to handle a sufficiently large region of attraction to make it worthwhile, you can change the environment to simplify the habit acquisition or porting problem.

You do this primarily by reducing variety and introducing homogeneity in both cognitive and physical contexts. This depends on your resources. If you are rich enough to hire a chauffeur you can forget about the complexities of driving. If you’re powerful enough that a lot of people want to work with you, you can pick and choose people who adapt to you, so you can keep your thinking the same.

“Simplifying” your life, far from being a monkish thing to do, is actually a behavior practiced most often by the rich. Monks (and sour-grapes foxes) simplify in a different way: by giving up desires, either mindfully or via sour-grapes rationalization.

For most of us, variety reduction is a limited option. We make up rueful aphorisms about the human condition that reflect this, like if you don’t get what you like, you are forced to like what you get. Shaw’s famous line,  “The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself” speaks to the relatively higher difficulty of changing the environment to reduce variety. It is an option that is dependent on your power.

But suppression of contextual variety to make habit formation cheaper comes at a price. It reduces your general ability to learn. This is perhaps the primary reason power leads to its own downfall. By making variety-reduction and homogenization an attractive alternative to the harder problems of habit formation and porting, power causes learning abilities to atrophy.

Organizational Habit Formation

Organizational habit formation is surprisingly similar to habit formation in individuals. We know it as economies of scale and scope.  The primary difference is that since organizations are typically far more powerful than individuals, the option of reducing variety and introducing homogeneity is more available to them.

Organizations become bad at learning and dealing with circumstances that cannot be homogenized away.

This is the reason industrial age organizations are associated with homogeneity and “seeing like a state.”

A major challenge in designing post-industrial organizations is to build into them the ability to accommodate variety and the discipline to not use the variety-reduction/homogenization option even when they have the power to do so. I’ve called this problem the “economies of variety” problem that I am still trying to figure out.

Thanks to Kartik Agaram and Jason Morton for useful discussions that informed this post. 

 

 

Steve Casner, Careful : a user's guide to our injury-prone minds, [2017]

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1M_Gb-YJ25bgm34xyVwBLvCAWffb-gkmu/view?usp=drive_link

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1M_Gb-YJ25bgm34xyVwBLvCAWffb-gkmu/view?usp=sharing

 

Daniel Coyle, The little book of talent, [2012]
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1n-12t0VCLuRT1NBG9Eoky4Zh4lW-0hF4/view?usp=drive_link

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1n-12t0VCLuRT1NBG9Eoky4Zh4lW-0hF4/view?usp=sharing
    ____________________________________

 

Your Health
What Vietnam Taught Us About Breaking Bad Habits
January 2, 201212:01 AM ET
Heard on Morning Edition
By  Alix Spiegel

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2012/01/02/144431794/what-vietnam-taught-us-about-breaking-bad-habits

    ____________________________________

 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shuhari

Shuhari (Kanji: 守破離 Hiragana: しゅはり) is a Japanese martial art concept which describes the stages of learning to mastery. It is sometimes applied to other disciplines, such as Go. 

Etymology

Shuhari roughly translates to "to keep, to fall, to break away" or "follow the rules, break the rules, transcend the rules".

Shuhari can be decomposed in 3 kanjis:

  • shu (守) "protect", "obey"—traditional wisdom—learning fundamentals, techniques, heuristics, proverbs.[1]
  • ha (破) "detach", "digress"—breaking with tradition—detachment from the illusions of self, to break with tradition - to find exceptions to traditional wisdom, to find new approaches. In some styles of Japanese music (gagaku and noh), it is also the middle of the song.[1]

  • ri (離) "leave", "separate"—transcendence—there are no techniques or proverbs, all moves are natural, becoming one with spirit alone without clinging to forms; transcending the physical - there is no traditional technique or wisdom, all movements are allowed. [1]

While the concept of Shuhari is very old, and most often identified with martial arts in general, it actually has its roots in early Japanese theater and poetry.

This historical context is important because part of the literal meaning of Shuhari has also evolved.

In feudal Japan (including during the entire shogunate/pre-Meiji Restoration era), the "ri" of shuhari was expressed with the kanji 離 .

Ri was about four kilometers – specifically, 3,927.6 meters as standardized in the 17th century: 36 cho (町), with each cho measured at 109.9 meters). The ri was a standard unit of far-distance measure just like a kilometer or mile is today.

However, as time evolved and a modern Japan emerged, ri came to mean a subset of its former meaning: a village or even place of birth (especially in the sense of a small town of birth). This is because fiefdoms, which centered around villages, were measured in ri. As the concept of fiefdoms receded and then disappeared, the meaning of ri changed from the distance that included the village to the village itself.

At that point, the "ri" of shuhari became ri, still maintaining the idea of large distance, but now meaning "to leave or separate away."[1] 


Definition

Aikido master Endō Seishirō shihan stated:

    "It is known that, when we learn or train in something, we pass through the stages of shu, ha, and ri. These stages are explained as follows. In shu, we repeat the forms and discipline ourselves so that our bodies absorb the forms that our forebears created. We remain faithful to these forms with no deviation. Next, in the stage of ha, once we have disciplined ourselves to acquire the forms and movements, we make innovations. In this process the forms may be broken and discarded. Finally, in ri, we completely depart from the forms, open the door to creative technique, and arrive in a place where we act in accordance with what our heart/mind desires, unhindered while not overstepping laws."[2]

History
Sen no Rikyū, who greatly influenced chanoyu thought in sadō (Japanese tea ceremony) in the 16th century

The Shuhari concept was first presented by Fuhaku Kawakami as Jo-ha-kyū in The Way of Tea, "Sado 茶道". Fuhaku based his process from the works of Zeami Motokiyo, the master of Noh, which then became a part of the philosophy of Aikido.[3]

Shuhari can be considered as concentric circles, with Shu within Ha, and both Shu and Ha within Ri. The fundamental techniques and knowledge do not change.[4][5]

During the Shu phase the student should loyally follow the instruction of a single teacher; the student is not yet ready to explore and compare different paths.[6] 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shuhari
    ____________________________________ 

 

[[ because of habit formation, legacy infrastructure, sunk cost, social technological economic political mindset and mental model, it would and should probably be very difficult, next to impossible for humanity (society, the world) to transition to the next stage of energy generation, material sustain ability model, new business model, and a new paradigm of development, while minimizing global warming, climate change, and zero balance sheet carbon foot print.  Failure is always an option.  Failure simply mean more people should and would died in the future.  Yes, ppl are going to die (tombstone) anyway, demographic and all that.  This cause of death (tombstone effect, tombstone model of development) is more attribute able to the failure of the Project (program).  In my opinion, when you (we) are successful, people (ppl) get to live our their natural live and die a mostly natural death, less suffering overall.  When we fail, more people die sooner than later.  More of them die (bigger magnitude).  And the way they pass on (die) is more chaotic (chaos) and less orderly.  More death, suffering, pain, and misery - a bigger order of magnitude - overall.  This is not a prediction.  This is not a forecast.  This is not a prophecy.  This is a general overall feel for humanity (n = all of humanity).  Peace be with you, peace be upon you; no worries, be happy; within 15 minutes after reading this you would have already forgotten every thing.  Amen. ]]

[[ The evidences, from literature review and a variety of research disciplines, show that people's mental models are prone to errors and omissions.  (As a part of humanity, my mental model is prone to errors and omissions; with that in mind, my musing should be totally ignore, even if the musing should turned out be true (1), untrue (0), or wishy-washy (fuzzy).)
   (James K. Doyle1.  David N. Ford1.  Mental models concepts for system dynamics research.  January 7, 1998.  report no. 6.)]]

    ____________________________________  
Harvard Business Review
December 2005

S T U D I E S  S H O W
Those Who Can't, Don't Know It

by Marc Abrahams

The ancients phrase “A fish rots from the head down” describes the pernicious effects that incompetent managers have on those below them. But such managers are hard to correct or criticize because they don't recognize there's a problem.
   Psychologists David Dunning of Cornell University and Justin Kruger, now at New York University's Stern School of Business, supplied scientific evidence that incompetence is bliss - bliss, that is, for the incompetent person. Their study, “Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments,” appeared in 1999 in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology.
   To explore the breadth and depth of human incompetence, Dunning and Kruger staged a series of experiments. In one, they asked 65 test subjects to rate funniness of certain jokes. They then compared each test subject's ratings with those of eight professional comedians. Some of the participants repeatedly couldn't predict what others would find funny - yet described themselves as excellent judges of humor (rather like the character David Brent in the British version of the TV series The Office). Although less colorful, Dunning and Kruger's other experiments - involving grammer and logic - yielded similar results. 
   Incompetence, the study demonstrated, represents a dismaying troika cluelessness: Incompetent people don't perform up to speed, don't recognize their lack of competence, and don't recognize the competence of others. “The skills that engender competence in a particular domain are often the very same skills necessary to evaluate competence in that domain,” the researcher conclude. In other words, if incompetents have people reporting to them, their poor judgment may damage careers besides their own. “Unskilled and Unaware of It” is online at www.apa.org/journals/features/psp7761121.pdf.

Marc Abrahams is the editors and cofounder of the scientific humor magazine Annals of Improbable Research (www.improb.com). In this regular Forethought column, he unearths studies that shed the oblique light of multidisciplinary research on the science of management.

Reprint F0512B
        FO512B
    ____________________________________

   
Seymour Papert: “Look if you want to learn French, don’t take it in 5th or 6th grade. Go to France, because everything that makes learning French reasonable, and everything that helps learning French, is in France. If you want to do it in the United States, make a France.”


“Television is the last technology we should be allowed to invent and put out without a surgeon general’s warning.”

AK [Alan Kay]: I once said, “Television is the last technology we should be allowed to invent and put out without a surgeon general’s warning.” That’s a very Neil Postman-kind of thing.


AK [Alan Kay]: ... ... ... But the disturbing thing is that the most general adopters of smoking are young people.

I used to be a smoker. I smoked until I was 26 and quit. It was back in the ’50s. Everybody smoked back then. I quit because my girlfriend wanted both of us to quit. Her idea was, divide the number of cigarettes in half every day, then get rid of the last ones, so about three or four days. Basically, I wanted a cigarette so badly, I got angry and decided I’d never smoke one again. That was two years of deep pain, six months of excruciating pain. Because it’s more addicting than heroin.


AK: Yeah, because most people do. I just was not going to do it, but the thing about smoking is, I don’t believe anybody gets any pleasure from it until you’re more or less into it, because it creates its own need and it actually can make you a little bit ill.

According to the studies that I’ve seen, virtually everybody who does it, does it for some image reason and usually a social reason. After you’ve done it a little bit, the actual addiction hangs in there and then you’re smoking to get back up to zero, slightly under zero.

Then there’s the other kind of addiction, which are partially social and partly self-punishment. The painkiller ones are interesting because I think that they do—what a lot of people get hooked on booze with is—it has an anesthetic effect.

I think any of kind of rational thinking on this stuff for a lot of people is not going to get you any further than the typical experiments of behavioral economists these days. Because this is System 1 versus System 2. If I’m a diabetic, I’m not getting any candy bars, but if you put a candy bar in front of a diabetic who has sugar cravings, most of them are going to take it, and rationalize it. I think that is where you’re in real trouble in terms of media.

https://www.fastcompany.com/40435064/what-alan-kay-thinks-about-the-iphone-and-technology-now
https://www.fastcompany.com/40435064/what-alan-kay-thinks-about-the-iphone-and-technology-now

http://philiplelyveld.com/?p=17658

09.15.17
BY BRIAN MERCHANT
   ____________________________________

How to live on 24 hours a day (Arnold Bennett)

 [[ this post should really be in the archive section ]]

 

 How to live on 24 hours a day (Arnold Bennett)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_to_Live_on_24_Hours_a_Day

How to Live on 24 Hours a Day

How to Live on Twenty-four Hours a Day is a short self-help book "about the daily organization of time"[1] by novelist Arnold Bennett. Written originally as a series of articles in the London Evening News in 1907, it was published in book form in 1908. Aimed initially at "the legions of clerks and typists and other meanly paid workers caught up in the explosion of British office jobs around the turn of the [twentieth] century", it was one of several "pocket philosophies" by Bennett that "offered a strong message of hope from somebody who so well understood their lives".[2] The book was especially successful in the US, where Henry Ford bought 500 copies to give to his friends and employees.[3] Bennett himself said that the book "has brought me more letters of appreciation than all my other books put together".[1]

Author    Arnold Bennett
Language    English
Subject    Self-help
Genre    Nonfiction
Publication date
    1908
Publication place    United Kingdom
Media type    Print


Philosophy

In the book, Bennett addressed the growing number of white-collar workers that had accumulated since the advent of the Industrial Revolution. In his view, these workers put in eight hours a day, forty hours a week, at jobs they did not enjoy, and at worst, hated. They worked to make a living, but their daily existence consisted of waking up, getting ready for work, working as little as possible during the workday, going home, unwinding, going to sleep, and repeating the process the next day. In short, he did not believe they were really living.

Bennett addressed this problem by urging his readers to seize their extra time and make the most of it to improve themselves. Extra time could be found at the beginning of the day, by waking up early, and on the ride to work, on the way home from work, in the evening hours, and especially during the weekends. During this time, he prescribed improvement measures such as reading great literature, taking an interest in the arts, reflecting on life, and learning self-discipline.

Bennett wrote that time is the most precious of commodities and that many books have been written on how to live on a certain amount of money each day. He added that the old adage "time is money" understates the matter, as time can often produce money, but money cannot produce more time. Time is extremely limited, and Bennett urged others to make the best of the time remaining in their lives.

visit en.wikipedia.org

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_to_Live_on_24_Hours_a_Day

to read  the following advice from Bennett:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_to_Live_on_24_Hours_a_Day

to read  the following warning from Bennett:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_to_Live_on_24_Hours_a_Day

Chapters

The book includes the following chapters:

    The Daily Miracle
    The Desire to Exceed One's Programme
    Precautions Before Beginning
    The Cause of the Trouble
    Tennis and the Immortal Soul
    Remember Human Nature
    Controlling the Mind
    The Reflective Mood
    Interest in the Arts
    Nothing in Life is Humdrum
    Serious Reading
    Dangers to Avoid


Quote

    Which of us lives on twenty-four hours a day? And when I say "lives," I do not mean exists, nor "muddles through." Which of us is free from that uneasy feeling that the "great spending departments" of his daily life are not managed as they ought to be? [...] Which of us has not been saying to himself all his life: "I shall alter that when I have a little more time"? We never shall have any more time. We have, and we have always had, all the time there is.


you can read the (image scan) of the book here, using your usual web browser
 How to live on 24 hours a day
by  Bennett, Arnold, 1867-1931
https://archive.org/details/howtoliveon24hou00bennuoft/howtoliveon24hou00bennuoft/page/30/mode/2up


you can download the (pdf file format) of the book here,
(( I have not test or check this URL link out, however, I believe URL should work if everything else that is needed to make the URL work is working as it should, if you know what I mean; and if you do not not what it mean, then that's okay, too. ))
https://archive.org/download/howtoliveon24hou00bennuoft/howtoliveon24hou00bennuoft.pdf

here is another place on the Web (internet) where you see (get) different format (version) of the book, How to Live on 24 Hours a Day, by Arnold Bennett, [1908]
https://gutenberg.org/ebooks/2274

Author     Bennett, Arnold, 1867-1931
Title     How to Live on 24 Hours a Day
Alternate Title     How to live on twenty-four hours a day
Contents     Preface -- The daily miracle -- The desire to exceed one's programme -- Precautions before beginning -- The cause of the trouble -- Tennis and the immortal soul -- Remember human nature -- Controlling the mind -- The reflective mood -- Interest in the arts -- Nothing in life is humdrum -- Serious reading -- Dangers to avoid.
Credits     Produced by Tony Adam. HTML version by Al Haines.
Language     English
LoC Class     BJ: Philosophy, Psychology, Religion: Ethics, Social usages, Etiquette, Religion
Subject     Conduct of life
Subject     Values
Subject     Time management
Category     Text
EBook-No.     2274
Release Date     Aug 1, 2000
Most Recently Updated     Dec 31, 2020
Copyright Status     Public domain in the USA.
Downloads     1106 downloads in the last 30 days.


you can read the (HTML web page) of the book here,
The Project Gutenberg eBook of How to Live on 24 Hours a Day
 
https://gutenberg.org/cache/epub/2274/pg2274-images.html


you can read the (plain TEXT format) of the book here,
https://gutenberg.org/cache/epub/2274/pg2274.txt

Title: How to Live on 24 Hours a Day
Author: Arnold Bennett
Release date: August 1, 2000 [eBook #2274]
                Most recently updated: December 31, 2020
Language: English

Produced by Tony Adam.  HTML version by Al Haines.


PREFACE TO THIS EDITION

This preface, though placed at the beginning, as a preface must be,
should be read at the end of the book.

I have received a large amount of correspondence concerning this small
work, and many reviews of it--some of them nearly as long as the book
itself--have been printed.  But scarcely any of the comment has been
adverse.  Some people have objected to a frivolity of tone; but as the
tone is not, in my opinion, at all frivolous, this objection did not
impress me; and had no weightier reproach been put forward I might
almost have been persuaded that the volume was flawless!  A more
serious stricture has, however, been offered--not in the press, but by
sundry obviously sincere correspondents--and I must deal with it.  A
reference to page 43 will show that I anticipated and feared this
disapprobation.  The sentence against which protests have been made is
as follows:--"In the majority of instances he [the typical man] does
not precisely feel a passion for his business; at best he does not
dislike it.  He begins his business functions with some reluctance, as
late as he can, and he ends them with joy, as early as he can. And his
engines, while he is engaged in his business, are seldom at their full
'h.p.'"

I am assured, in accents of unmistakable sincerity, that there are many
business men--not merely those in high positions or with fine
prospects, but modest subordinates with no hope of ever being much
better off--who do enjoy their business functions, who do not shirk
them, who do not arrive at the office as late as possible and depart as
early as possible, who, in a word, put the whole of their force into
their day's work and are genuinely fatigued at the end thereof.

I am ready to believe it.  I do believe it.  I know it.  I always knew
it.  Both in London and in the provinces it has been my lot to spend
long years in subordinate situations of business; and the fact did not
escape me that a certain proportion of my peers showed what amounted to
an honest passion for their duties, and that while engaged in those
duties they were really _living_ to the fullest extent of which they
were capable.  But I remain convinced that these fortunate and happy
individuals (happier perhaps than they guessed) did not and do not
constitute a majority, or anything like a majority.  I remain convinced
that the majority of decent average conscientious men of business (men
with aspirations and ideals) do not as a rule go home of a night
genuinely tired.  I remain convinced that they put not as much but as
little of themselves as they conscientiously can into the earning of a
livelihood, and that their vocation bores rather than interests them.

Nevertheless, I admit that the minority is of sufficient importance to
merit attention, and that I ought not to have ignored it so completely
as I did do.  The whole difficulty of the hard-working minority was put
in a single colloquial sentence by one of my correspondents.  He wrote:
"I am just as keen as anyone on doing something to 'exceed my
programme,' but allow me to tell you that when I get home at six thirty
p.m. I am not anything like so fresh as you seem to imagine."

Now I must point out that the case of the minority, who throw
themselves with passion and gusto into their daily business task, is
infinitely less deplorable than the case of the majority, who go
half-heartedly and feebly through their official day.  The former are
less in need of advice "how to live."  At any rate during their
official day of, say, eight hours they are really alive; their engines
are giving the full indicated "h.p."  The other eight working hours of
their day may be badly organised, or even frittered away; but it is
less disastrous to waste eight hours a day than sixteen hours a day; it
is better to have lived a bit than never to have lived at all. The real
tragedy is the tragedy of the man who is braced to effort neither in
the office nor out of it, and to this man this book is primarily
addressed.  "But," says the other and more fortunate man, "although my
ordinary programme is bigger than his, I want to exceed my programme
too!  I am living a bit; I want to live more. But I really can't do
another day's work on the top of my official day."

The fact is, I, the author, ought to have foreseen that I should appeal
most strongly to those who already had an interest in existence.  It is
always the man who has tasted life who demands more of it.  And it is
always the man who never gets out of bed who is the most difficult to
rouse.

Well, you of the minority, let us assume that the intensity of your
daily money-getting will not allow you to carry out quite all the
suggestions in the following pages.  Some of the suggestions may yet
stand.  I admit that you may not be able to use the time spent on the
journey home at night; but the suggestion for the journey to the office
in the morning is as practicable for you as for anybody. And that
weekly interval of forty hours, from Saturday to Monday, is yours just
as much as the other man's, though a slight accumulation of fatigue may
prevent you from employing the whole of your "h.p." upon it.  There
remains, then, the important portion of the three or more evenings a
week.  You tell me flatly that you are too tired to do anything outside
your programme at night.  In reply to which I tell you flatly that if
your ordinary day's work is thus exhausting, then the balance of your
life is wrong and must be adjusted.  A man's powers ought not to be
monopolised by his ordinary day's work. What, then, is to be done?

The obvious thing to do is to circumvent your ardour for your ordinary
day's work by a ruse. Employ your engines in something beyond the
programme before, and not after, you employ them on the programme
itself.  Briefly, get up earlier in the morning.  You say you cannot.
You say it is impossible for you to go earlier to bed of a night--to do
so would upset the entire household.  I do not think it is quite
impossible to go to bed earlier at night.  I think that if you persist
in rising earlier, and the consequence is insufficiency of sleep, you
will soon find a way of going to bed earlier.  But my impression is
that the consequences of rising earlier will not be an insufficiency of
sleep.  My impression, growing stronger every year, is that sleep is
partly a matter of habit--and of slackness.  I am convinced that most
people sleep as long as they do because they are at a loss for any
other diversion. How much sleep do you think is daily obtained by the
powerful healthy man who daily rattles up your street in charge of
Carter Patterson's van?  I have consulted a doctor on this point.  He
is a doctor who for twenty-four years has had a large general practice
in a large flourishing suburb of London, inhabited by exactly such
people as you and me.  He is a curt man, and his answer was curt:

"Most people sleep themselves stupid."

He went on to give his opinion that nine men out of ten would have
better health and more fun out of life if they spent less time in bed.

Other doctors have confirmed this judgment, which, of course, does not
apply to growing youths.

Rise an hour, an hour and a half, or even two hours earlier; and--if
you must--retire earlier when you can.  In the matter of exceeding
programmes, you will accomplish as much in one morning hour as in two
evening hours.  "But," you say, "I couldn't begin without some food,
and servants."  Surely, my dear sir, in an age when an excellent
spirit-lamp (including a saucepan) can be bought for less than a
shilling, you are not going to allow your highest welfare to depend
upon the precarious immediate co-operation of a fellow creature!
Instruct the fellow creature, whoever she may be, at night.  Tell her
to put a tray in a suitable position over night. On that tray two
biscuits, a cup and saucer, a box of matches and a spirit-lamp; on the
lamp, the saucepan; on the saucepan, the lid--but turned the wrong way
up; on the reversed lid, the small teapot, containing a minute quantity
of tea leaves.  You will then have to strike a match--that is all.  In
three minutes the water boils, and you pour it into the teapot (which
is already warm).  In three more minutes the tea is infused.  You can
begin your day while drinking it.  These details may seem trivial to
the foolish, but to the thoughtful they will not seem trivial.  The
proper, wise balancing of one's whole life may depend upon the
feasibility of a cup of tea at an unusual hour.

A. B.



for those of you who are too busy to read, but like to listen you can listen to the book here:

https://librivox.org/how-to-live-on-twenty-four-hours-a-day-by-arnold-bennett/
(( I have not test or check this URL link out, either, however, I believe URL should work if everything else that is needed to make the URL work is working as it should, if you know what I mean; and if you do not what it mean, then that's okay, too. ))

librivox-logoLibriVox
Acoustical liberation of books in the public domain

How to Live on Twenty-Four Hours a Day

Arnold Bennett (1867 - 1931)

"Which of us lives on twenty-four hours a day? And when I say 'lives,' I do not mean exists, nor 'muddles through.'" -- Arnold Bennett knew a "rat race" when he saw one. Every day, his fellow white-collar Londoners followed the same old routine. And they routinely decried the sameness in their lives.-- So Bennett set out to explain how to inject new enthusiasm into living. In this delightful little work, he taught his fellow sufferers how to set time apart for improving their lives. Yes, he assured them, it could be done. Yes, if you want to feel connected with the world, instead of endlessly pacing the treadmill (or, "exceeding your programme", as he called it), you must do so.-- For time, as he gleefully notes, is the ultimate democracy. Each of us starts our day with 24 hours to spend. Even a saint gets not a minute more; even the most inveterate time-waster is docked not a second for his wastrel ways. And he can choose today to turn over a new leaf! -- Bennett believed that learning to discern cause and effect in the world would give his readers an endless source of enjoyment and satisfaction. Instead of only being able to discuss what they had heard, they could graduate to what they thought... and lift themselves completely from the deadening influence of a day at the office. (Summary by Mark F Smith)

Genre(s): Self-Help

Language: English

here is the URL, again:
https://librivox.org/how-to-live-on-twenty-four-hours-a-day-by-arnold-bennett/

on the behalf of everyone (mina-san), we would like give a special thanks to Mark F. Smith for reading how-to-live-on-twenty-four-hours-a-day-by-arnold-bennett, because some people are visually impaired, and or visually disable, ...

00 - Preface
https://www.archive.org/download/twenty-four_hours_a_day_librivox/live_on_24_hours_00_bennett.mp3

01 - The Daily Miracle
https://www.archive.org/download/twenty-four_hours_a_day_librivox/live_on_24_hours_01_bennett.mp3

02- The Desire to Exceed One's Programme
https://www.archive.org/download/twenty-four_hours_a_day_librivox/live_on_24_hours_02_bennett.mp3

03 - Precautions Before Beginning
https://www.archive.org/download/twenty-four_hours_a_day_librivox/live_on_24_hours_03_bennett.mp3

04 - The Cause of the Troubles
https://www.archive.org/download/twenty-four_hours_a_day_librivox/live_on_24_hours_04_bennett.mp3

05 - Tennis and the Immortal Soul
https://www.archive.org/download/twenty-four_hours_a_day_librivox/live_on_24_hours_05_bennett.mp3

06 - Remember Human Nature
https://www.archive.org/download/twenty-four_hours_a_day_librivox/live_on_24_hours_06_bennett.mp3

07 - Controlling the Mind
https://www.archive.org/download/twenty-four_hours_a_day_librivox/live_on_24_hours_07_bennett.mp3

08 - The Reflective Mood
https://www.archive.org/download/twenty-four_hours_a_day_librivox/live_on_24_hours_08_bennett.mp3

09 - Interest in the Arts
https://www.archive.org/download/twenty-four_hours_a_day_librivox/live_on_24_hours_09_bennett.mp3

10 - Nothing in Life is Humdrum
https://www.archive.org/download/twenty-four_hours_a_day_librivox/live_on_24_hours_10_bennett.mp3

11 - Serious Reading
https://www.archive.org/download/twenty-four_hours_a_day_librivox/live_on_24_hours_11_bennett.mp3

12 - Dangers to Avoid
https://www.archive.org/download/twenty-four_hours_a_day_librivox/live_on_24_hours_12_bennett.mp3



source:
        this 75 page book  
          Title: How to Live on 24 Hours a Day
          Author: Arnold Bennett
        has been recommended by
How to Develop Self-confidence & Influence People by Public Speaking
by Carnegie, Dale
instead of reading the newspaper (what is a newspaper?) or anything else, the author recommend getting a print copy of this book, tear out the pages into a set of 20 (about), with 75 pages that's 25 pages, 3 set, put each set into your coat jacket pocket, and read and refer to this book in your ...; when you finished with one, rubber band that and move to the next set; the book would  be (proof, prove) more useful in your coat pocket than on your book shelf.  

Bullshit (Harry Frankfurt)

    ____________________________________

Bullshit (Harry Frankfurt)

https://www2.csudh.edu/ccauthen/576f12/frankfurt__harry_-_on_bullshit.pdf

Deceptive misrepresentation:
Short of lying: 
Especially by pretentious word or deed: 
Misrepresentation … of somebody’s own thoughts, feelings, or
attitudes: 

deliberately misrepresents anything,

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_Bullshit

On Bullshit is a 2005 book (originally a 1986 essay) by the American philosopher Harry G. Frankfurt which presents a theory of bullshit that defines the concept and analyzes the applications of bullshit in the context of communication. Frankfurt determines that bullshit is speech intended to persuade without regard for truth. The liar cares about the truth and attempts to hide it; the bullshitter doesn't care whether what they say is true or false.[1] Frankfurt's philosophical analysis of bullshit has been analyzed, criticized and adopted by academics since its publication.[2]

 a distinction between "bullshitters" and liars. He concludes that bullshitters are more insidious: they are more of a threat against the truth than are liars.[8]

 

"bullshitters" as being more accurate than "hallucination" or "confabulation".[29]

 

 

source:
       https://www.ribbonfarm.com/now-reading/
   ____________________________________

ribbonfarm.com (??)

    ____________________________________

Gervais principle
https://www.ribbonfarm.com/the-gervais-principle/


Posts from the Tempo Blog

This is an index of posts published on the Tempo book blog that existed as a separate site between 2011-14, and was absorbed into Ribbonfarm in 2019. You may also find the Tempo Glossary useful.
https://www.ribbonfarm.com/tempo/

https://tempobook.com/glossary/
   ____________________________________

Feed your brain (fs.blog)

    ____________________________________

Feed your brain (fs.blog)

https://fs.blog/

https://fs.blog/start/

popular articles:

https://fs.blog/2012/04/feynman-technique/

https://fs.blog/2017/08/amateurs-professionals/

https://fs.blog/2012/07/how-to-win-friends-and-influence-people/

https://fs.blog/2016/04/munger-operating-system/

[[ need at least one good example and a case study]]
https://fs.blog/2016/04/second-order-thinking/

https://fs.blog/2017/10/how-to-remember-what-you-read/

https://fs.blog/2013/05/the-buffett-formula/


Explore Farnam street articles:

https://fs.blog/learning/

https://fs.blog/mental-models/

https://fs.blog/smart-decisions/

https://fs.blog/reading/

https://fs.blog/intellectual-giants/

 

bias blindess and how we truly think

by Daniel Kahneman

https://www.ceresaig.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Bias-Blindness-and-How-We-Truly-Think-Kahneman.pdf

 

https://fs.blog/charles-darwins-reflections-mind/

https://fs.blog/charles-darwin-thinker/

 

https://fs.blog/maria-konnikova-confidence-game/

 

 

https://fs.blog/
   ____________________________________

dragon, Lego creation, Chen 2024

    ____________________________________

dragon, Lego creation, Chen 2024 
by Donny Chen 
Brickvention 2023

Chen managed to pull it off:

    “The dragon I promised for the Year of the Dragon—maybe a bit bigger than a bunny, LOL! I kicked off this project about a year back, right after Brickvention2023, and I’ve been working at it on and off. Started building it about a month ago, and I’m pretty happy about how it turned out. No strings, no wires, not a drop of glue, not even a flexible tube, all solid connections. It stretches a solid 2 meters when fully spread out, around 1300 scales and made up of 6500-7000 pieces.” 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8bM0Lax0a0w
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8bM0Lax0a0w

Brickvention 2024: Golden Dragon by Donny
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KtgDRqnn-_w
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KtgDRqnn-_w


source:
       https://www.ribbonfarm.com/
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theory of variation (W. Edwards Deming)

 
theory of variation (W. Edwards Deming)
what is it?
what does Deming mean when he is talking about the theory of variation 

[[ read this ]]
http://www.jimleonardpi.com/blog/theory-of-variation/

http://www.jimleonardpi.com/default/assets/File/Blog%20-%20Theory%20of%20Variation.pdf

http://www.jimleonardpi.com/default/assets/File/Blog%20-%20Introduction%20to%20W_%20Edwards%20Deming's%20Sytem%20of%20Profound%20Knowledge.pdf

https://itrevolution.com/articles/demings-system-of-profound-knowledge/



[[ read this, reread this ]]
https://www.spcforexcel.com/knowledge/dr-w-edwards-deming/profound-knowledge-part-2/

[[ come back later to read this ]]
https://deming.org/the-need-for-understanding-variation-to-manage-effectively/

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_cause_and_special_cause_(statistics)


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taguchi_methods


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gemba#Variations


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_thinking

 

 

[[ read this, specially as related to the understanding of variation (theory of variation) ]]

https://deming.org/lessons-from-the-red-bead-experiment-with-dr-deming/ 

   ____________________________________

 

 carburetor makers, quartz movement watch

carburetor makers

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carburetor

 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_injection

quartz movement watch

What happened to the carburetor makers? The paradigm shifted. A paradigm is a working model of beliefs or assumptions used to define and limit parameters of a given approach to a system or process. The carburetor makers’ paradigm was limited to the carburetor being the only way to mix the fuel and air. Past success is no guarantee of future success when the paradigm shifts. Innovation is usually what causes the paradigm to shift. In Switzerland, the Swiss watchmakers failed to realize the impact of the quartz movement watch, even though it was invented by the Swiss. The result of this paradigm shift was the Swiss watchmaker work force dropped from 65,000 to 10,000 in ten years. Past troubles at IBM can be traced, in part, to the failure to respond to the personal computer paradigm shift. Defining your basic business is one key to setting the aim of the system. It is important to remember that people work in the system; management works on the system.

In a steel mill, one department is supposed to clean the scale on tubes. The operators must know why it is important to remove the scale to be able to do their job. Why is it important to have clean tubes for the next operation or for the final customer? The why makes a difference on the operational definition of “clean.”

Harvard Business School professor Michael Porter told the people gathered at then President-elect Bill Clinton’s economic summit in December 1992 that, on the average, a share of stock in corporate America is held for only two years. “Our investors are too concerned with guessing what stock is going to appreciate in the next six months or a year rather than in understanding the fundamental health of the company.”

1. Define the boundaries of the system. As a starting point, the boundary will probably be the company, its customers, its suppliers, and the community where the company is located. In the future, the boundaries may change to include competitors. Work with suppliers who understand the system of profound knowledge. You may have to educate your suppliers and your customers.

Boundaries of a System

Two things are critical in applying this part of the system of profound knowledge. First is defining the boundaries of the system. For example, if you are a motor freight company, does the system include only your suppliers, your customers, and your company or does the system include all motor freight carriers, suppliers, and customers? This distinction is important because, if it includes your competition, then you must work together with your competitors to improve the system.

Dr. Deming actually supports companies working with their competitors to optimize the system for long-term survival.

 In the world according to Dr. Deming, companies would be just one component of the system with the aim being to “stay in business for the long term, and to provide maximum benefit to themselves, to their customers and suppliers, and to society.” In this world, companies would not set prices that would hurt the system in the long term.


source:
       https://www.spcforexcel.com/knowledge/dr-w-edwards-deming/profound-knowledge-part-1/

 

   ____________________________________

By John Hunter

The data provided by the Red Bead Experiment is often much more convincing than the data we get from our organizations. One lesson I think is underplayed is the lesson that data that seems very clear, is not providing the evidence we think it is. I think because we can easily see this data can’t be providing value we discount it. But I think in many organization if they looked at data like this they would have easier decision than the data they actually have. The Red Bead data seems to be showing clearer difference than the data we normally view. This isn’t the case if you have knowledge about variation, but without that knowledge the data can be deceiving.


source:  
       https://deming.org/lessons-from-the-red-bead-experiment-with-dr-deming/
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run chart vs control chart

[[ the following URL result came from google.com ]]
https://www.england.nhs.uk/improvement-hub/wp-content/uploads/sites/44/2017/11/A-guide-to-creating-and-interpreting-run-and-control-charts.pdf


[[ the following URL result came from bing.com ]]
https://thisvsthat.io/control-chart-vs-run-chart

https://pmstudycircle.com/control-chart-versus-run-chart/

 

https://deeprojectmanager.com/run-chart-vs-control-chart/

 

 

Limitations of Run Charts
https://pmstudycircle.com/control-chart-versus-run-chart/
To understand a run chart, you must know the context around the data.

Without further information, you may think a trend is normal when it is a variation. Sometimes, you may think a trend is abnormal when it is not. 
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Kalidasa (India's poet and playwright, classical Sanskrit)

 the following is a typed selections from  

"How To Stop Worrying And Start Living", 

by Dale Carnegie 

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fe2cg-wTJhuqDHen72d9iAL3nPlfNoWA/view?usp=sharing

https://archive.org/details/in.ernet.dli.2015.188253/mode/2up

"Every day is a new life to a wise man."

Each morning I said to myself, "Today is a new life."

I can live one day at a time -- and that "Every day is a new life to a wise man."

Roman poet Horace.

Happy the man, and happy he alone,

He, who can call to-day his own:

He who, secure within, can say:

"To-morrow, do thy worst, for I have liv'd to-day."

the Greek philosopher Heraclitus told his students that "everything changes except the low of change."  He said, "You can not step in the the same river twice."  The river changes every second; and so does the man who stepped in it.  Life is a ceaseless change.

Lowell Thomas.

Psalm CXVIII (118), Bible

This is the day which the Lord hath made;

we will rejoice and be glad in it.

John Ruskin had on his desk a simple piece of stone on which was carved one word:

TODAY.

a poem that Sir William Osler always kept on his desk -- a poem written by the famous dramatist, Kalidasa:

SALUTATION TO THE DAWN

Look to this day!

For it is life, the very life of life.

In its brief course

Lies all the verities and realities of your existence:

         The bliss of growth

         The glory of action

         The splendor of achievement,

For yesterday is but a dream

And tomorrow is only a vision,

But today well lived makes yesterday a dream

  of happiness

And every tomorrow a vision of hope.

Look well, therefore, to this day'

Such is the salutation to the dawn.

1.  Shut the iron doors on the past and the future.  Live in Day-tight compartments.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalidasa

Kālidāsa (Sanskrit: कालिदास, "Servant of Kali"; 4th–5th century CE) was a Classical Sanskrit author who is often considered ancient India's greatest poet and playwright.[1][2] His plays and poetry are primarily based on Hindu Puranas and philosophy. His surviving works consist of three plays, two epic poems and two shorter poems.

Much about his life is unknown except what can be inferred from his poetry and plays.[3] His works cannot be dated with precision, but they were most likely authored before the 5th century CE during the Gupta era.