fourth turning (Strauss and Howe)

 
fourth turning (Strauss and Howe)


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generational_theory

Strauss–Howe generational theory, devised by William Strauss and Neil Howe,

Academic response to the theory has been mixed, with some applauding Strauss and Howe for their "bold and imaginative thesis", while others have criticized the theory as being overly deterministic, unfalsifiable, and unsupported by rigorous evidence.[4][5][6][7][8] Former U.S. Vice President Al Gore, who graduated from Harvard University with Strauss, called Generations the most stimulating book on American history he had ever read, and even sent a copy to each member of Congress.[8] The theory has been influential in the fields of generational studies, marketing, and business management literature.[6] However, the theory has also been described by some historians and journalists as pseudoscientific,[6][9][10] "kooky",[11] and "an elaborate historical horoscope that will never withstand scholarly scrutiny".[12][13][14] Academic criticism has focused on the lack of rigorous empirical evidence for their claims,[15] as well as the authors' view that generational groupings are more powerful than other social groupings, such as economic class, race, sex, religion, and political parties.[1] However, Strauss and Howe later suggested that there are no exact generational boundaries – the speed of their development cannot be predicted. The authors also compared the cycles with the seasons, which may come sooner or later, which turned out to be right.[16]

The theory of generations is actively studied and modified by the world's leading research centers, for example, such as the international American consulting company McKinsey & Company[17] or the Australian McCrindle Research Center.[18]

In 1997, the authors published The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy, which expanded on the ideas presented in Generations and extended their cycles back into the early 15th century. The authors also updated their terminology for generational archetypes (e.g. "Civics" became "Heroes", which they applied to the Millennial Generation, "Adaptives" became "Artists"), and introduced the terms "Turning" and "Saeculum" to describe the generational cycles.[26] The title is a reference to what their first book called a Crisis period, which they expected to recur soon after the turn of the millennium.[27]

On December 18, 2007, William Strauss died at the age of 60 from pancreatic cancer.[28] Neil Howe continues to expand LifeCourse Associates and to write books and articles on a variety of generational topics. Each year Howe gives about 60 speeches, often followed by customized workshops, at colleges, elementary schools, and corporations.[8] Neil Howe is a public policy adviser to the Blackstone Group, senior adviser to the Concord Coalition, and senior associate to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.[29] In July 2023 Howe released a new book, titled The Fourth Turning Is Here.[30]


[[ the following is a generational theory, emphasis on theory, not  predestination, or fate, ... ]]
https://christophegaron.com/articles/mind/understanding-the-fourth-turning-how-geopolitics-shapes-society/

Historical Cycles: Patterns Repeated

Understanding the Fourth Turning requires delving deeper into the concept of historical cycles. Strauss and Howe identify four distinct cycles that repeat over time, each with its own characteristics and corresponding generational archetypes.


The First Turning: High, an Age of Confidence

The first turning is characterized by social harmony, strong institutions, and a sense of collective purpose. It is a period of stability where the focus is on preserving established values and traditions. This stage often follows a major crisis or conflict and is marked by strong leadership and a sense of national unity.


The Second Turning: Awakening, an Age of Reflection

The second turning represents a period of questioning and challenges to the status quo. It is a time of increased individualism and a reevaluation of societal institutions and norms. This stage is often characterized by cultural and spiritual awakenings, as well as a focus on personal growth and self-expression.


The Third Turning: Unraveling, an Age of Discord

The third turning is marked by societal disintegration and a weakening of institutions. It is a period of individualism and a breakdown of long-standing social structures. This stage is often characterized by rising social inequality, political polarization, and a lack of trust in traditional institutions.


The Fourth Turning: Crisis, an Age of Transformation

The fourth turning is the climax of the historical cycle. It represents a period of crisis and upheaval, where previous systems and institutions are challenged and transformed. This stage is marked by generational conflicts, social unrest, and the potential for both positive and negative change.

Understanding these historical cycles enables us to recognize patterns and anticipate future societal changes. It helps explain why certain events and conflicts have occurred throughout history and offers insights into the potential direction of our society.


Conclusion: The Significance of the Fourth Turning

The Fourth Turning theory challenges traditional historical perspectives by highlighting the cyclical nature of history and the influence of geopolitics on society. By understanding these patterns, we can gain valuable insights into how societal changes occur and how they are shaped by generational shifts and geopolitical events.





https://search.worldcat.org/title/35008291

The fourth turning : an American prophecy
862 reviews
Authors:William Strauss, Neil Howe
Summary:The authors look back five hundred years and uncover a distinct pattern: modern history moves in cycles, each one lasting about the length of a human life, each composed of four eras - or "turnings"--That last about twenty years and that always arrive in the same order. First comes a high, a period of confident expansion as a new order takes root after the old has been swept away. Next comes an awakening, a time of spiritual exploration and rebellion against the now-established order. Then comes an unravelling, an increasingly troubled era in which individualism triumphs over crumbling institutions. Last comes a crisis - the fourth turning - when society passes through a great and perilous gate in history. Together, the four turnings comprise history's seasonal rhythm of growth, maturation, entropy, and rebirth. By applying the lessons of history, The fourth turning makes some bold and hopeful predictions about America's next rendezvous with destiny. It also shows us how we can prepare for what's ahead, both individually and as a nation