china debates the future security environment
CHINA DEBATES the FUTURE SECURITY ENVIRONMENT
Pillsbury, Michael (2000). China Debates the Future Security Environment. University Press of the Pacific. ISBN 978-1-4102-1856-8. Archived from the original on 2009-06-25.
•
https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/2000/part01.htm
Don't debate. . . Once debate begins, things become complicated.
Deng Xiaoping
CHINA DEBATES the FUTURE SECURITY ENVIRONMENT
MICHAEL PILLSBURY
January 2000
National Defense University Press
Washington, DC
Contents
PREFACE
PROLOGUE
1. THE MULTIPOLARITY DEBATE
The Current Assessment, 1986-99
Multipolarity Proclaimed in 1986
Revisionist Multipolarity
Challenging the Orthodox View
The Orthodox Counterattack
Techniques for Showing Dissent
Differences Within the Orthodox Camp
Post-Kosovo Debate
Shanghai's Elaborate Studies
Fifty-Year Structures
Future Wars
Rivalries, Struggles, and Local Wars
Sources of Wars
Deng Xiaoping Thought
China's Role in Multipolarity
Findings
The Basic Framework
Debates
Regional Wars
2. AMERICA'S DECLINING ROLE
Failure to Implement the RMA
Future Military Weaknesses
Weakness in Logistics
North Korea Can Defeat America
Weaknesses in the Gulf War
U.S. Aircraft Carrier Vulnerabilities
Overall U.S. Decline
Loss of Allies
Self-Prophecy of Decline
Lord of the Earth
Findings
3. JAPAN AND INDIA: DANGEROUS DEMOCRACIES
The Inevitable Rise of Japan and India
Japan
Future Rivalries
Contrasting Views
Future Militarism
Impact of Militarism
He Xin: A Dissenting View
Military Development
India
A Future Asian Great Power?
Instability in South Asia
Historical Rivalries
The Enduring Relevance of History
Findings
4. A WEAK RUSSIA'S FUTURE
Rely on China
Debates on Russia
Development and Recovery
Dangers in the Future Security Environment
Russia's Response
Influence of the Kosovo Crisis
Sino-Russian Relations
Military Development
"Secret" RMA Efforts
Implications of the Soviet Collapse
American Subversion?
Moscow's Own Fault
Findings
5. GEOPOLITICAL POWER CALCULATIONS
The Orthodox Versus the Reform
Origins
Ancient Chinese Strategists as Antecedents
Modern Beginnings
Qualitative Factors
High-Technology Warfare
Economic Rivalries
Strategy and Structure
Grand Strategy
Quantitative Factors
The CASS Index Framework
The AMS Index System
Foreign Methods
The CASS Weighted Index Plan
The AMS Dynamic Equation
Calculating the Rise and Decline of Nations
Forecasts: Winners and Losers in 2020
CASS
AMS
CNP Versus GDP Forecasts
Other Predictions
Findings
6. FORECASTING FUTURE WARS
Where Will Local Wars Occur?
What Kind of Wars Could Affect China?
Institutional Affiliations of the Three Schools
Force Structure and the Three Schools
People's War School
Local War School
The RMA Advocates
Three Mutually Exclusive Scenarios
The RMA in China
RMA Forecasts
The RMA and the United States
Asymmetric War
Advocates
Proposals and Programs
National Conferences
Asymmetric Warfare
Strategy
Sea Power
Air Power
Nanotechnology Weapons
"Magic Weapons"
Combat Concepts
Defense Investment Decisions
Resource Allocation
Investments Recommended by RMA Advocates
Investments Recommended by Power Projections Advocates
Investments Recommended by People's War Advocates
Findings
7. CONCLUSIONS
Multiple Debates
The Rate of Multipolarization
The Pace of U.S. Decline
The Future Powers
The Roles of Japan and Russia
Future Wars
A Clear Picture
Warring States
America's Decline
Future National Power
Threats from Japan and India
Partnership with Russia
Forecasting Future Wars
Sensitive Debates
ACRONYMS
CHINESE LANGUAGE BIBLIOGRAPHY
APPENDIX 1: THE DEFINITION OF STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT
APPENDIX 2: ASSESSMENT INSTITUTIONS
INDEX OF CHINESE AUTHORS
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/2000/part01.htm
https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/2000/part01.htm
Contents
PREFACE
https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/2000/part02.htm
PROLOGUE
https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/2000/part03.htm
https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/2000/part03.htm
1. THE MULTIPOLARITY DEBATE
The Current Assessment, 1986-99
Multipolarity Proclaimed in 1986
Revisionist Multipolarity
Challenging the Orthodox View
The Orthodox Counterattack
Techniques for Showing Dissent
Differences Within the Orthodox Camp
Post-Kosovo Debate
Shanghai's Elaborate Studies
Fifty-Year Structures
Future Wars
Rivalries, Struggles, and Local Wars
Sources of Wars
Deng Xiaoping Thought
China's Role in Multipolarity
Findings
The Basic Framework
Debates
Regional Wars
2. AMERICA'S DECLINING ROLE
Failure to Implement the RMA
Future Military Weaknesses
Weakness in Logistics
North Korea Can Defeat America
Weaknesses in the Gulf War
U.S. Aircraft Carrier Vulnerabilities
Overall U.S. Decline
Loss of Allies
Self-Prophecy of Decline
Lord of the Earth
Findings
3. JAPAN AND INDIA: DANGEROUS DEMOCRACIES
The Inevitable Rise of Japan and India
Japan
Future Rivalries
Contrasting Views
Future Militarism
Impact of Militarism
He Xin: A Dissenting View
Military Development
India
A Future Asian Great Power?
Instability in South Asia
Historical Rivalries
The Enduring Relevance of History
Findings
4. A WEAK RUSSIA'S FUTURE
Rely on China
Debates on Russia
Development and Recovery
Dangers in the Future Security Environment
Russia's Response
Influence of the Kosovo Crisis
Sino-Russian Relations
Military Development
"Secret" RMA Efforts
Implications of the Soviet Collapse
American Subversion?
Moscow's Own Fault
Findings
5. GEOPOLITICAL POWER CALCULATIONS
The Orthodox Versus the Reform
Origins
Ancient Chinese Strategists as Antecedents
Modern Beginnings
Qualitative Factors
High-Technology Warfare
Economic Rivalries
Strategy and Structure
Grand Strategy
Quantitative Factors
The CASS Index Framework
The AMS Index System
Foreign Methods
The CASS Weighted Index Plan
The AMS Dynamic Equation
Calculating the Rise and Decline of Nations
Forecasts: Winners and Losers in 2020
CASS
AMS
CNP Versus GDP Forecasts
Other Predictions
Findings
6. FORECASTING FUTURE WARS
Where Will Local Wars Occur?
What Kind of Wars Could Affect China?
Institutional Affiliations of the Three Schools
Force Structure and the Three Schools
People's War School
Local War School
The RMA Advocates
Three Mutually Exclusive Scenarios
The RMA in China
RMA Forecasts
The RMA and the United States
Asymmetric War
Advocates
Proposals and Programs
National Conferences
Asymmetric Warfare
Strategy
Sea Power
Air Power
Nanotechnology Weapons
"Magic Weapons"
Combat Concepts
Defense Investment Decisions
Resource Allocation
Investments Recommended by RMA Advocates
Investments Recommended by Power Projections Advocates
Investments Recommended by People's War Advocates
Findings
7. CONCLUSIONS
Multiple Debates
The Rate of Multipolarization
The Pace of U.S. Decline
The Future Powers
The Roles of Japan and Russia
Future Wars
A Clear Picture
Warring States
America's Decline
Future National Power
Threats from Japan and India
Partnership with Russia
Forecasting Future Wars
Sensitive Debates
ACRONYMS
CHINESE LANGUAGE BIBLIOGRAPHY
APPENDIX 1: THE DEFINITION OF STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT
APPENDIX 2: ASSESSMENT INSTITUTIONS
INDEX OF CHINESE AUTHORS
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
CHINA DEBATES the FUTURE SECURITY ENVIRONMENT
Pillsbury, Michael (2000). China Debates the Future Security Environment. University Press of the Pacific. ISBN 978-1-4102-1856-8. Archived from the original on 2009-06-25.
•
https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/2000/part01.htm
Don't debate. . . Once debate begins, things become complicated.
Deng Xiaoping
CHINA DEBATES the FUTURE SECURITY ENVIRONMENT
MICHAEL PILLSBURY
January 2000
National Defense University Press
Washington, DC
Contents
PREFACE
PROLOGUE
1. THE MULTIPOLARITY DEBATE
The Current Assessment, 1986-99
Multipolarity Proclaimed in 1986
Revisionist Multipolarity
Challenging the Orthodox View
The Orthodox Counterattack
Techniques for Showing Dissent
Differences Within the Orthodox Camp
Post-Kosovo Debate
Shanghai's Elaborate Studies
Fifty-Year Structures
Future Wars
Rivalries, Struggles, and Local Wars
Sources of Wars
Deng Xiaoping Thought
China's Role in Multipolarity
Findings
The Basic Framework
Debates
Regional Wars
2. AMERICA'S DECLINING ROLE
Failure to Implement the RMA
Future Military Weaknesses
Weakness in Logistics
North Korea Can Defeat America
Weaknesses in the Gulf War
U.S. Aircraft Carrier Vulnerabilities
Overall U.S. Decline
Loss of Allies
Self-Prophecy of Decline
Lord of the Earth
Findings
3. JAPAN AND INDIA: DANGEROUS DEMOCRACIES
The Inevitable Rise of Japan and India
Japan
Future Rivalries
Contrasting Views
Future Militarism
Impact of Militarism
He Xin: A Dissenting View
Military Development
India
A Future Asian Great Power?
Instability in South Asia
Historical Rivalries
The Enduring Relevance of History
Findings
4. A WEAK RUSSIA'S FUTURE
Rely on China
Debates on Russia
Development and Recovery
Dangers in the Future Security Environment
Russia's Response
Influence of the Kosovo Crisis
Sino-Russian Relations
Military Development
"Secret" RMA Efforts
Implications of the Soviet Collapse
American Subversion?
Moscow's Own Fault
Findings
5. GEOPOLITICAL POWER CALCULATIONS
The Orthodox Versus the Reform
Origins
Ancient Chinese Strategists as Antecedents
Modern Beginnings
Qualitative Factors
High-Technology Warfare
Economic Rivalries
Strategy and Structure
Grand Strategy
Quantitative Factors
The CASS Index Framework
The AMS Index System
Foreign Methods
The CASS Weighted Index Plan
The AMS Dynamic Equation
Calculating the Rise and Decline of Nations
Forecasts: Winners and Losers in 2020
CASS
AMS
CNP Versus GDP Forecasts
Other Predictions
Findings
6. FORECASTING FUTURE WARS
Where Will Local Wars Occur?
What Kind of Wars Could Affect China?
Institutional Affiliations of the Three Schools
Force Structure and the Three Schools
People's War School
Local War School
The RMA Advocates
Three Mutually Exclusive Scenarios
The RMA in China
RMA Forecasts
The RMA and the United States
Asymmetric War
Advocates
Proposals and Programs
National Conferences
Asymmetric Warfare
Strategy
Sea Power
Air Power
Nanotechnology Weapons
"Magic Weapons"
Combat Concepts
Defense Investment Decisions
Resource Allocation
Investments Recommended by RMA Advocates
Investments Recommended by Power Projections Advocates
Investments Recommended by People's War Advocates
Findings
7. CONCLUSIONS
Multiple Debates
The Rate of Multipolarization
The Pace of U.S. Decline
The Future Powers
The Roles of Japan and Russia
Future Wars
A Clear Picture
Warring States
America's Decline
Future National Power
Threats from Japan and India
Partnership with Russia
Forecasting Future Wars
Sensitive Debates
ACRONYMS
CHINESE LANGUAGE BIBLIOGRAPHY
APPENDIX 1: THE DEFINITION OF STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT
APPENDIX 2: ASSESSMENT INSTITUTIONS
INDEX OF CHINESE AUTHORS
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/2000/part01.htm
https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/2000/part01.htm
Contents
PREFACE
https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/2000/part02.htm
PROLOGUE
https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/2000/part03.htm
https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/2000/part03.htm
1. THE MULTIPOLARITY DEBATE
The Current Assessment, 1986-99
Multipolarity Proclaimed in 1986
Revisionist Multipolarity
Challenging the Orthodox View
The Orthodox Counterattack
Techniques for Showing Dissent
Differences Within the Orthodox Camp
Post-Kosovo Debate
Shanghai's Elaborate Studies
Fifty-Year Structures
Future Wars
Rivalries, Struggles, and Local Wars
Sources of Wars
Deng Xiaoping Thought
China's Role in Multipolarity
Findings
The Basic Framework
Debates
Regional Wars
2. AMERICA'S DECLINING ROLE
Failure to Implement the RMA
Future Military Weaknesses
Weakness in Logistics
North Korea Can Defeat America
Weaknesses in the Gulf War
U.S. Aircraft Carrier Vulnerabilities
Overall U.S. Decline
Loss of Allies
Self-Prophecy of Decline
Lord of the Earth
Findings
3. JAPAN AND INDIA: DANGEROUS DEMOCRACIES
The Inevitable Rise of Japan and India
Japan
Future Rivalries
Contrasting Views
Future Militarism
Impact of Militarism
He Xin: A Dissenting View
Military Development
India
A Future Asian Great Power?
Instability in South Asia
Historical Rivalries
The Enduring Relevance of History
Findings
4. A WEAK RUSSIA'S FUTURE
Rely on China
Debates on Russia
Development and Recovery
Dangers in the Future Security Environment
Russia's Response
Influence of the Kosovo Crisis
Sino-Russian Relations
Military Development
"Secret" RMA Efforts
Implications of the Soviet Collapse
American Subversion?
Moscow's Own Fault
Findings
5. GEOPOLITICAL POWER CALCULATIONS
The Orthodox Versus the Reform
Origins
Ancient Chinese Strategists as Antecedents
Modern Beginnings
Qualitative Factors
High-Technology Warfare
Economic Rivalries
Strategy and Structure
Grand Strategy
Quantitative Factors
The CASS Index Framework
The AMS Index System
Foreign Methods
The CASS Weighted Index Plan
The AMS Dynamic Equation
Calculating the Rise and Decline of Nations
Forecasts: Winners and Losers in 2020
CASS
AMS
CNP Versus GDP Forecasts
Other Predictions
Findings
6. FORECASTING FUTURE WARS
Where Will Local Wars Occur?
What Kind of Wars Could Affect China?
Institutional Affiliations of the Three Schools
Force Structure and the Three Schools
People's War School
Local War School
The RMA Advocates
Three Mutually Exclusive Scenarios
The RMA in China
RMA Forecasts
The RMA and the United States
Asymmetric War
Advocates
Proposals and Programs
National Conferences
Asymmetric Warfare
Strategy
Sea Power
Air Power
Nanotechnology Weapons
"Magic Weapons"
Combat Concepts
Defense Investment Decisions
Resource Allocation
Investments Recommended by RMA Advocates
Investments Recommended by Power Projections Advocates
Investments Recommended by People's War Advocates
Findings
7. CONCLUSIONS
Multiple Debates
The Rate of Multipolarization
The Pace of U.S. Decline
The Future Powers
The Roles of Japan and Russia
Future Wars
A Clear Picture
Warring States
America's Decline
Future National Power
Threats from Japan and India
Partnership with Russia
Forecasting Future Wars
Sensitive Debates
ACRONYMS
CHINESE LANGUAGE BIBLIOGRAPHY
APPENDIX 1: THE DEFINITION OF STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT
APPENDIX 2: ASSESSMENT INSTITUTIONS
INDEX OF CHINESE AUTHORS
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
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